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Sunday, February 15, 2015

AAP Ki Dilli and aftermath

The AAP victory has created a political history in the whole country. The pollsters were off the mark when all of them predicted just a comfortable majority to the Aap Aadmi Party, forecasting over 20 seats for the BJP and almost writing off the Congress. The voters in Delhi have set off an avalanche. If 2014 Lok Sabha polls experienced a Modi tsunami, there is no word to describe AAP's victory in 67 of the total 70 assembly seats.

The debate on what exactly led to the AAP avalanche, Waterloo of the BJP and decimation of the Congress in the national capital will continue for next few weeks. The army of the Sangh Parivar, scores of Union ministers and nearly 150 MPs in the Delhi poll arena were outsmarted by the thousands of the AAP volunteers drawn from all over the country who had been tirelessly working in bylanes, slums and other areas of the walled city since a few months prior to the polls.

The poll verdict of the Delheites will indeed have a lasting impact on the national politics. Kiran Bedi who was 'paradropped' as the BJP's chief ministerial nominee failed to improve the BJP's sagging poll fortune. But when the party could just win three seats of the 70 seats, the blame has been fully shifted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah.

The Delhi poll debacle have left tremors in the BJP hierarchy as well as in the Congress camp. The second rung of party leaders in the BJP who had been totally sidelined for almost for a year in the process of decision making are now likely to be heard. The BJP was able to retain its core votes base but the AAP succeeded in attracting the votes shares of the Congress and other parties. This is a warning bells for all the traditional parties who have hitherto banked on castes, religion or region to win the votes. The AAP has indeed shattered all these barricades to win an unprecedented nearly 95 percent of the assembly seats. The Delhi success has now encouraged the AAP volunteers to undertake similar massive campaign in Mumbai and other metropolitan cities having polls in the next couple of years.

BJP's poll debacle has prompted its ally in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena, to take pot shots at Prime Minister Narendra Modi,  indicating the strained relationship in the saffron alliance government. Indeed there was always a tug of war even within the Congress-NCP government but it had become a matter of public concern only at the fag end of the third term of the government when NCP supremo Sharad Pawar charged that the state government was affected by a 'paralysis' of indecisiveness. Fireworks have began in the BJP-Shiv Sena government soon after completion of just 100 days in power.

If things are not sorted out by both parties well in time, the state may face fresh polls. Arvind Kejriwal succeeded in winning majority of seats in the assembly in the second attempt. Both BJP and Shiv Sena are keen on having their own government with a majority support in the state assembly and either of them may be tempted to follow Kejriwal's example to opt for the gamble and adventurism of fresh polls. If they have no such intentions, the two parties should bury the hatchets and work to fulfill the promise of clean governance and development.  

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